We've been wanting to put this post up for awhile. It features a pair of articles that really gave us cause to ponder. The author is Canada's Tom Axworthy, former principle secretary to Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada's most-loved (and most-hated) Prime Ministers in recent memory.

For those connected with Canada World Youth (CWY), the youth exchange organisation that we worked with over the past three years, Tom is one of the board members - in addition to leading the government-funded Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Tom wrote these articles in late July, following a lecture tour in China. The trip obviously made a big impression on him. If you have time, take a moment to read this two-part series, Economic doomsday looms for China's rulers and China: Engage but don't kowtow, which we have extracted from the Toronto Star and posted together for your convenience.

Tom starts with a bombshell (heck, even the title of the first article fits that description), not because it is really a revelation, but because it goes far against what seems to be the conventional wisdom in political and economic circles:

"In the debate over the proposed takeover of Noranda [Canada's largest mining company; the deal didn't go through] by a state-owned Chinese company... proponents of the deal argued that this was a 'private sector' transaction in which the normal western rules of capitalism would apply.

This view is nonsensical at best, deceiving at worst. In China today, as it has been since 1949, the Communist party controls whatever it wants to control. If it chooses to allow state-owned enterprises to compete internationally today, that is a decision that can be reversed at any moment. For the party, survival is all and control is the way to maintain its dominance. The Communist party is no longer Marxist, but it is still Leninist."

This is such a simple concept, it is bizarre that so many people do not understand it. Exactly the same applies to any freedoms which Chinese citizens might currently enjoy. Someone (we regret forgetting who) recently made an excellent point, as well: Where would a typical Chinese leader have learned anything of accountability to the people he is ostensibly responsible for?

What has mattered in the past and what continues to matter today is nepotism at every level of the party, and accompanying political jockeying and corruption. The mechanisms of civic accountability simply do not exist save for show, with the Appeals Office in Beijing being a case in point. Considering such appeals, take a look at Ian Johnson's Pultizer Prize-winning feature, Paper Chase: A Grieving Daughter Traces a Tortuous Path Seeking Justice in China.


To bring his point home, Tom summarizes,

"For the [Communist] party, survival is all and control is the way to maintain its dominance."

Of course, things are rarely this black and white. The party is not as monolithic as it hopes to be. There are many people that are overcoming the fear of questioning its legitimacy, and some of those are high within party ranks. With more than 3.5 million people having quit the Chinese Communist Party, a series of measures are being implemented to hold party ranks, some even as we write. See today's Reuters article, China Communists Unveil Rules to Keep Army in Check -- a fascinating read, arguing that China's recent moves are an attempt to forestall a Colour Revolution.

The Liberation Army Daily is quoted as saying, "Vigorously strengthening party discipline over the military and strictly punishing wrongdoing appear especially important under the circumstances of hostile Western forces' strategy to Westernise and divide." -- mirroring propaganda and policies Hu Jintao implemented in May to prevent political change.

Now, back to Tom Axworthy's articles. Tom goes on to argue something which again seems to be out of place in current mainstream economic thinking: That China is on the verge of economic collapse, largely because of massive non-performing loans repeatedly given to China's gargantuan state enterprises. We hadn't heard this particular economic argument before, but it is compelling, adding yet another large question mark to what conventional wisdom dictates we should know about China.

Finally, Tom goes as far as suggests a three-prong strategy, and on this he is extremely straightforward:

First, maintaining a military balance in Asia. Second, engagement on economic, cultural and intellectual fronts. Third, support of human rights dissidents. In brief, Engage, but never kowtow.

Paul Martin [Canada's current Prime Minister] will do well to follow Tom's advice when he meets with Hu Jintao next month, especially following widespread speculation that the recent lightning-quick deportation of Chinese national Xiaoping Hu had a political dimension, namely placating Beijing.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 17, 2005 at 2:49 p.m.. You can skip to the end and leave a response.